my country's power lithium battery market presents a diversified development trend
Under the explosive rise in sales of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have also ushered in the "highlight moment" of the explosion of installed capacity, and their development prospects are bright. Facing the goal of global carbon emissions, the sustainable development of the power lithium-ion battery industry chain is particularly important. How to balance carbon emission goals and sustainable development is also a test for the power lithium-ion battery industry.
On December 2nd, the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association, made a speech on "Promoting the Sustainable Rise of New Energy Vehicles". report on the subject. The report introduces the development of new energy vehicles from four aspects: vehicle technology, sustainable battery development, charging and swapping, smart energy for electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel and fuel-powered lithium batteries. Thinking deserves our attention.
Þroskinn litíum-jónarafhlöðutækni leggur grunninn að sprengingu í sölu rafbíla
In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will enter a stage of explosive growth, and the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show a trend of rapid monthly increase. Industry data show that from January to November 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country's market reached 2.99 million, and the annual sales in 2021 are expected to reach 3.3 million. Ouyang Minggao predicts that my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022.
Sem kjarnahluti rafknúinna farartækja, kraftlitíum-jónarafhlaðan, heldur tækni hennar áfram að batna, kostnaður minnkar, hönnun rafhlöðukerfisins heldur áfram að nýjungar, blaðið, CTP og önnur nýstárleg ferli eru notuð á í stórum stíl og litíum járnfosfat rafhlöðutæknin heldur áfram að þroskast. Uppgangur orkutækja hefur lagt traustan grunn.
Ouyang Minggao sagði að miðað við eftirspurn eftir langri rafhlöðuendingu nýrra orkutækja, þá færu kraftlitíum-jónarafhlöður enn í átt að mikilli-sérstakri orku og há-nikkelþrígildri litíum{{ 3}}jónarafhlöður, eða fastar-fljótandi blandaðar háar-nikkelþrígildar litíum-rafhlöður. Bættu orkuþéttleika kraftlitíum-jónarafhlöðu.
When new energy vehicles enter a period of fierce competition, the improvement of battery technology will play an important role in the competition of new energy vehicles in my country. At present, my country's battery technology occupies a leading position in the world. Ouyang Minggao said that my country's battery industry chain is relatively complete, and 70 percent of the world's battery production is in my country. It is difficult to shake the competitiveness of my country's power lithium-ion battery industry in a short period of time. He also pointed out that, however, other countries have not relaxed their research on battery technology, and Japan, the United States and other countries strongly support a new generation of high-performance power lithium-ion batteries represented by solid-state batteries, "but the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology has not affected the market. It is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the pattern to have an important impact. The scale of my country's RD team in the battery field is far ahead in the world, and young talents are coming out in large numbers.
Aukning á uppsettu afli leiðir til sjálfbærrar þróunar allrar iðnaðarkeðjunnar
Sem stendur, með aukinni framleiðslu og sölu nýrra orkutækja, hefur uppsett afkastageta kraftlitíum-jónarafhlöðu einnig sprungið. Frá janúar til september 2021 eru samtals 92GWh af kraftmiklum litíum-jónarafhlöðum settar upp á kínverska markaðnum og gert er ráð fyrir að þær nái 150GWh allt árið. Ouyang Minggao sagði að gert sé ráð fyrir að árið 2025 verði hleðsla litíum-rafhlöðunnar á kínverska markaðnum um 600GWh og árið 2030 verði hún 1500-2000GWh. Miðað við fjölda nýrra orkutækja er hægt að spá því að heildarfjöldi rafgeyma ökutækja í mínu landi fari yfir 2000GWh árið 2025, 7000GWh árið 2030 og 15000GWh árið 2035.
Vegna heita rafbílamarkaðarins eru rafhlöðufyrirtæki einnig að auka framleiðslu hratt. Ouyang Minggao sagði að núverandi kraftlitíum-jónarafhlöðuiðnaður sé kominn í skortstíma. Samkvæmt tölfræði mun fyrirhuguð framleiðsla kraftlitíum-jónarafhlöðu í mínu landi ná 1000GWh árið 2023 og nálægt 2500GWh árið 2025.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of production has stimulated the cyclical price increase of upstream materials in the battery industry, causing the entire industry to worry about the shortage of raw material resources. Regarding the reserves of lithium ore, cobalt ore, nickel ore, etc., the economic recoverable reserves of global lithium resources are 21 million tons, and the total exploration reserves are 86 million tons. Ouyang Minggao said, "The total exploration reserves have continued to increase in recent years, and the problem of raw materials does not seem to be large."
The industry's concerns are not unreasonable. The limited reserves of cobalt resources and the uneven distribution of global resources are the focus of the industry's concerns. Cobalt resources, the economically exploitable reserves are only 7.1 million tons, and the global resource distribution is extremely uneven. 2/3 of the cobalt mines are dependent on the Congo (Gold) in Africa; 3/4 of the lithium mines are distributed in Australia, Chile, Argentina, etc. Country; half of nickel mines depend on Indonesia and Russia.
It is worth noting that the battery "carbon footprint" is also very worthy of attention. According to Ouyang Minggao, different types of batteries have different life cycle carbon emissions. Taking the ternary high-nickel 811 lithium-ion battery as an example, the carbon emission per kilowatt-hour of the whole life cycle is about 87 kilograms. The relatively high carbon emission of ternary batteries is mainly due to the positive electrode material. Carbon emissions from the preparation of precursors and cathode materials account for half of the total emissions of ternary batteries. Compared with the ternary NCM811 battery, the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of the lithium iron phosphate battery is about one third less.
In order to solve the problem of battery carbon emissions, many domestic battery companies are currently shifting their production to the west, such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai and other places, making full use of the "green electricity" resources in the western region. For example, the battery production plan in Sichuan Province has reached 500GWh, of which Yibin has 160GWh.
Rafhlöðutæknileiðin er komin inn á tímum fjölbreyttrar þróunar
Þrátt fyrir að núverandi kraftlitíum-jónarafhlaða sé í almennum straumi hefur hún líka staði sem ekki er hægt að hylja. Rafknúin farartæki með rafhlöðum litíum-jónarafhlöðum dreifist ójafnt í Kína og flest þeirra eru einbeitt í suður-, mið- og austurhluta Múrsins. Svæðin norðan Múrsins, vestur og norðvestur eru ekki mikið dreifð.
Í þessu sambandi eru vetniseldsneyti-knúnar litíumrafhlöður, sem hafa smám saman farið inn í augu almennings á undanförnum árum, á nýjum orkubílamarkaði ásamt kraftmiklum litíum-jónarafhlöðum vegna mikils hráefnis. geymslu, lítið-kolefnishreinleika og stór-framleiðsla í atvinnuskyni. Ef þetta tvennt getur myndað fyllingarform mun það stórauka skipulag nýrra orkutækja í bílaiðnaðinum og geta betur og hraðar náð markmiðinu um að draga úr kolefnislosun.
Ouyang Minggao said that the breakthrough in hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery technology is almost ten years later than that of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the cost of hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries is in a period of rapid decline and will usher in an explosion. The hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery has entered the stage of large-scale commercial demonstration, and five ministries including the Ministry of Finance have launched the national hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle application demonstration project. For example, Beijing is recently implementing a demonstration project of fuel-powered lithium battery vehicles "Hydrogen Mobility for the Winter Olympics".
Ouyang Minggao benti einnig á að útlit rafknúinna ökutækja með vetnisorku ætti einnig að taka tillit til: fylgja markmiðinu um hreint og lítið-kolefni og ná nýjum byltingum í vetnisorkutækni með tækninýjungum. Taktu markaðinn í fararbroddi, notaðu vetnisorku í samræmi við staðbundnar aðstæður og sigrast á núverandi erfiðleikum og göllum vetnisorku.
It should be noted that the current power lithium-ion battery market has entered an explosive period, and its dominant position will be difficult to shake in a short period of time. Hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries will also take the opportunity to develop, but its volume and scale, and even technology and talent reserves, They are unable to compete with the main body of lithium-ion batteries, so that my country's power lithium-ion battery market has formed a market structure dominated by lithium-ion batteries and supplemented by hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries, showing a diversified development trend of blooming flowers.
