Lithium rafhlaða þjóta: Henda út 100 milljarða fjárfestingarstækkunaráætlun á einum mánuði
Tölfræði sýnir að á síðasta mánuði einum hafa meira en 10 keðjufyrirtæki í litíum rafhlöðuiðnaði tilkynnt um útrásaráætlanir um fjárfestingar, með heildarfjárfestingu upp á allt að 100 milljarða júana, þar af voru leiðtogar iðnaðarins Ningde Times og Yiwei Lithium Energy fjárfestingaráætlanir um helming. samtals.
"Grab the scale, grab the (market) share, and profit is not something to consider at this stage." In the face of the continuous hot lithium battery investment wave, an executive of a listed company in the industry chain told reporters this.
Entering the fourth quarter, the lithium battery industry chain is still the most dazzling sector in the market. A private equity person bluntly said that there is growth and certainty here, and there is a market prospect of trillions of dollars, which is unparalleled in the whole market. "The short-term and long-term logic is very clear. Now the huge investment of industry chain companies has made up for the gap in medium-term changes."
Statistics from Shanghai Securities News show that in the past month alone, leading A-share lithium battery companies represented by Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy have announced plans for investment and capacity expansion totaling 100 billion yuan. Driven by unprecedented industrial investment, the lithium-ion battery sector has once again been sought after by the market, and has begun to form a virtuous industry-financial cycle of "financing - investment expansion - stock price rise - continued financing".
No one can resist an exponentially expanding "cake". From the terminal car manufacturers, to the supply chain such as lithium batteries in the midstream, to the raw materials such as lithium mines in the upstream, everyone is working hard. When the entire industry chain, as well as the secondary market, and even the primary market are running, then all participants have only one choice - to run faster.
Upphlaup: 100 milljarða júana fjárfesting á 1 mánuði
"This wave of investment has two characteristics: first, leading companies lead the investment, and second, the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain." Among the hundreds of billions of investment scale in the past month, Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy accounted for half of the country.
On October 18, CATL, the leader in lithium batteries, said in its reply to the fixed-increase inquiry letter: "There is a large demand for business development funds." After listing a series of capital expenditures such as production construction, RD investment, and company operations, the company believes that , the existing funds cannot meet the needs of future development, and bluntly stated that the capital demand for new production construction from 2020 to the present will be as high as 110 billion yuan. Despite "not enough money to spend", CATL announced two more project investment plans on November 5, totaling 15 billion yuan.
In the past month of lithium battery production expansion, CATL's 15 billion yuan cannot raise too much water. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, in the past month alone, more than 10 companies in the lithium battery industry chain have announced plans to invest and expand production, with a total investment of up to 100 billion yuan.
For example, on November 5, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced that the company plans to complete a fixed asset investment of 30.521 billion yuan in Jingmen City, acquire about 3,000 acres of land, and build a Jingmen Power Storage Battery Industrial Park project with an annual output of 152.61GWh. Yiwei Lithium Energy said that this move is to better seize the market opportunities of power storage batteries, expand the production scale of power storage batteries, and optimize the company's industrial structure.
"This wave of investment has two characteristics: first, leading companies lead the investment, and second, the upstream and downstream extension of the industrial chain." An industry insider said.
Þróun leiðandi fyrirtækja sem leiða fjárfestinguna er augljós. Meðal hundruð milljarða fjárfestingar umfangs síðasta mánaðar, Ningde Times og Yiwei Lithium Energy voru helmingur landsins. Ofangreindir-innherjar í iðnaðinum sögðu að litíum rafhlaða væri eign-þungiðnaðar með mikla fjárfestingu. Leiðandi fyrirtæki hafa yfirburði í tækni, fjármagni og öðrum þáttum. Undanfarin ár hefur markaðshlutdeild nokkurra leiðandi fyrirtækja haldið áfram að aukast, sem næst með mikilli-stækkun.
The upstream and downstream extension investment of the industrial chain is also the "exclusive" of leading companies. On November 8, Shida Shenghua, the leader in electrolyte solvents for lithium-ion batteries, announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenghua New Energy, plans to invest in a 300,000-ton/year electrolyte project with an estimated total investment of 1.6 billion yuan. This is Shi Dashenghua's first entry into the field of downstream electrolyte production.
This action quickly attracted market attention. A large number of institutional investors flocked to the company's conference call. Shi Dashenghua said in response to investors' questions that the essence of electrolytes is materials, and many large-scale electrolyte companies are deploying upstream materials. The "type" electrolyte material supplier has been transformed into an electrolyte plus material integrated platform service provider.
Race up: You can't hand over the market to others
"As long as it is produced, it can be sold. If we do not expand production, it is equivalent to handing over the market to others, which is equivalent to handing over future performance to others."
"The track is hot now, and the cost of investment must be relatively high. If you look at the logic of the cycle, it is obviously impossible to invest, and you will not be able to bear depreciation in the future; if you look at the logic of growth, the current investment represents the future output. If the shortage of supply can continue, the output will become profit." The above-mentioned private equity source told reporters.
Eftir að þekking hefur verið vinsæl undanfarin eitt eða tvö ár hefur markaðurinn meðvitað breytt skarpskyggni nýrra orkutækja sem ýmis lönd hafa lagt til í samsvarandi eftirspurn eftir litíum-jónarafhlöðum. Sem dæmi má nefna að sumar rannsóknarstofnanir áætla að skarpskyggni nýrra orkutækja í Bandaríkjunum muni ná 50 prósentum árið 2030, sem jafngildir 25-faldri aukningu á nýjum orkubílamarkaði á 10 árum. Væntingarnar fyrir landið mitt eru bjartsýnni. Sumar stofnanir telja að hlutfall nýrra orkutækja í mínu landi muni ná 35 prósentum árið 2025.
An industry with such a huge scale and an amazing growth rate is regarded as the Internet at the beginning of this century. Therefore, a large number of Internet giants dare to spend tens of billions of funds to end up "building cars"; new car-making forces are not afraid of losses, even if they sell one car and lose one, they must seize the market. The downstream grabbing the market regardless of cost will undoubtedly drive the entire industry chain to boil, especially in the most important link in the new energy vehicle industry chain-battery, the heat soon catches up.
"The output is not enough, and it has not been enough." A relevant person from a company in the lithium-ion battery industry told reporters.
Some industry analysts also provided a calculation method, "The penetration rate of new energy vehicles multiplied by the annual sales volume, and then multiplied by the kilowatt-hours of single-vehicle batteries, is the demand for lithium batteries for new energy vehicles. Policies, car companies, and research institutions have been increasing the demand. The latest ones are 1400GWh to 1600GWh."
Demand goals mean no worries about selling, and no worries about selling represent performance. The above-mentioned relevant person analyzed: "As long as it is produced, it can be sold. If we do not expand production, it is equivalent to handing over the market to others, which is equivalent to handing over future performance to others."
The above-mentioned private equity people said that they are used to seeing the market's pursuit of popular tracks, and it is easy to understand the excitement and frustration of the collective expansion of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. "For companies in the industry chain, this is an almost once-in-a-hundred-year opportunity. It has become both fame and fortune. If it doesn't, it will be after the tide goes out. It's too late to think about it now."
Not only companies in the industry chain are running, but also OTC funds are actively entering the market. In the secondary market, expansion of production can often be sought after by the market, and fixed increase is effortless; in the primary market, institutions will even "snatch the head" for a start-up battery company.
Að setja þetta allt saman: Midstream áskoranir eru að koma fram
"Unless the supply of lithium mines is significantly improved, it will seriously affect the profit margins of lithium battery companies." Some private equity people believe that the midstream of almost all manufacturing industries is "inflated at both ends", the downstream is under pressure from the terminal, and the upstream is the cost of raw materials.
Villihlaupið er algengt í óvæntum árásum, en sjaldgæft í langar vegalengdir. Ástæðan er einföld, langar vegalengdir eru meira jafnvægi í framboði. Fyrir litíum rafhlöðuiðnaðinn eru það andstreymisauðlindir sem ákvarða styrk hans.
Miðað við núverandi tæknileiðir, þó að það séu nýjar tæknilegar leiðir eins og natríumjónir, eru litíum rafhlöður enn alger meginstraumur. Hins vegar er litíum sjálft sjaldgæfur málmur. Hvort námuástand þess á næstu árum geti haldið í við eftirspurn eftir nýjum orkutækjum er einn af lykilþáttum fyrir alla nýju orkubílaiðnaðarkeðjuna frá sölu til hagnaðar.
Staðan er þó ekki bjartsýn. Rannsóknarskýrsla West China Securities telur að heildaraukning á alþjóðlegum harðbergslitíumauðlindum á næstu tveimur árum sé mjög takmörkuð. Ef aukningin á kjarnfóðri sem Greenbush Mine selur er dregin frá sölu sem ekki er-markaðssett, er hægt að útvega þykknihráefnið til alþjóðlegra litíumsaltvinnslustöðva. Aukningin er takmarkaðri og flestar litíumsaltvinnslustöðvar munu standa frammi fyrir skorti á hráefni.
However, another technical route, lithium extraction from salt lakes, has entered the mainstream vision. Tibet Mining has revealed that from a technical point of view, the Zabuye Salt Lake Phase II project fully draws on the relevant experience of the successful lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake, and chooses "salt field evaporation plus membrane separation technology plus crystallization evaporation" in combination with its own resource endowment characteristics. Lithium extraction technology route, this process route can reduce the total cost of lithium carbonate production after deducting by-products to 24,100 yuan/ton (the production cost of lithium carbonate extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake is 32,000 yuan/ton to 34,000 yuan/ton), the product Competitiveness will be greatly improved.
"Unless the supply of lithium mines is significantly improved, it will seriously affect the profit margins of lithium battery companies." The above-mentioned private equity sources believe that the midstream of almost all manufacturing industries is "inflated at both ends", the downstream is under pressure from the terminal, and the upstream is the cost of raw materials. For example, the middle reaches of the fuel vehicle industry chain are not very good. The downstream OEMs require an annual price reduction, and the upstream steel and other raw material prices follow the market. This is one of the reasons why domestic auto parts manufacturers rarely have independent giants. "The upstream of lithium battery companies is still small metals, and their cost pressures should be paid more attention to."
Eins og eldsneytisbílar er einnig þrýstingur á að lækka verð eftir litíum rafhlöður. Á þessu stigi er sölumagn nýja bíla-framleiðandans ekki mikið og þeir miða aðallega að hámarks-markaðnum, þannig að tapið er ásættanlegt. Hins vegar, með stöðugri aukningu á sölumagni og lækkun á meðalverði vörunnar, er þrýstingur á endastöðinni skylt að vera send til litíum rafhlöðufyrirtækisins.
"It is very difficult to reduce costs. Now the manufacturing cost of a lithium-ion battery exceeds that of a fuel vehicle." An executive of a car company told reporters.
"Don't worry too much. Lithium battery companies are also exploring new technologies and processes through financing, RD, and production. Only when the growing industry runs, can there be infinite possibilities." The above-mentioned industry insiders said.
