In 2022, my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 47 percent year-on-year
Þann 14. desember sagði Chen Shihua, staðgengill framkvæmdastjóri Samtaka bílaframleiðenda í mínu landi, á 2022 leiðtogafundinum um þróun bílamarkaðsþróunar í landi mínu, að gert sé ráð fyrir að sala nýrra bíla í mínu landi muni ná 27,5 milljónum árið 2022, á ári-á-ári aukning um 5,4 prósent . Sala nýrra orkutækja mun ná 5 milljónum, sem er 47 prósenta aukning á milli ára-á ári. Vandamálið með flísaframboð verður enn til staðar á næsta ári. Flísaframboð mun ná þéttu jafnvægi í lok næsta árs.
Flísaframboð verður í þéttu jafnvægi á næsta ári
On the basis that the cumulative sales of new cars in my country's auto market in the first 11 months of this year have reached 23.489 million units, the China Automobile Association predicts that my country's total auto sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percent . Among them, the sales volume of passenger vehicles was 21.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percent ; the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4 percent ; the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
Chen Shihua analyzed that in 2021, due to the increasing shortage of automotive chips in the third quarter, the monthly trend of my country's auto market will be characterized by highs and lows. From January to October 2021, there will be a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in my country's auto market due to chip supply issues. Considering the next two months, the shortage of chip supply will lead to a reduction of 1.3 million to 1.4 million vehicles in my country's auto market this year.
Kína Automobile Association spáir því að þróun bílamarkaðarins á næsta ári verði hið gagnstæða, sem sýnir einkenni lágt áður og hátt. Chen Shihua telur að opnun Vetrarólympíuleikanna á fyrri hluta næsta árs muni hafa ákveðin áhrif á framleiðslu bíla-tengdra fyrirtækja í Norður-Kína og vandamál með flísaframboð muni halda áfram fram á næsta ár. Flísaframboð mun ná þéttu jafnvægi í lok næsta árs.
Regarding the trend of my country's auto market in 2022, the my country Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that my country's total auto sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent . Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles were 23 million units, an increase of 8 percent year-on-year; the sales of commercial vehicles were 4.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6 percent ; the sales of new energy vehicles were 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47 percent .
Chen Shihua said that in addition to chips, there are multiple factors that are conducive to the development of the auto market next year. For example, in 2022, my country's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand will be strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase.
Chen Shihua believes that from the perspective of long-term development, my country's automobile market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market. Although there were fluctuations in my country's automobile market in 2018, throughout history, the developed countries also experienced fluctuations of about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging from this law, the production and sales of my country's automobile market is currently at the end of a short-term adjustment, and will maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
Nýr orkubílamarkaður gæti farið í sprengitíma
Fu Bingfeng, framkvæmdastjóri og framkvæmdastjóri Samtaka bifreiðaframleiðenda í mínu landi, benti á að árið 2021 muni eftirspurn neytenda á markaði halda áfram að sýna tilhneigingu til að bæta gæði og uppfæra og heildarframleiðsla og sala bifreiða mun enn halda áfram stöðug aukning og það eru margir ljósir punktar. Uppsöfnuð framleiðsla nýrra orkutækja fyrstu 11 mánuðina fór yfir 3 milljónir og sölumagn var nálægt 3 milljónum. Gert er ráð fyrir að árlegt sölumagn verði 3,4 milljónir sem er 1,6-föld aukning á ári-á-ári. Markaðsvæðing nýrra orkutækja hefur farið inn í nýtt stig mikillar vaxtar, sem hefur færst frá stefnu-drifin yfir í markaðs-drifin í fortíðinni.
In Fu Bingfeng's view, a new round of technological revolution is empowering the transformation of the automobile industry and accelerating the progress towards "electrification, networking, and intelligence". important strategic choices for development. The continuous improvement of people's living standards continues to drive the consumption upgrade of the automobile market, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end automobile sales has increased year by year, which has also brought new development opportunities for automobile companies. He also pointed out that external adverse effects such as anti-globalization, continued epidemics, and high raw material prices have also brought uncertainty to the development of the auto industry. my country's auto industry should be alert to the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Wang Qing, staðgengill forstöðumanns Markaðshagrannsóknastofnunar Þróunarrannsóknarmiðstöðvar ríkisráðsins, spáir því að gert sé ráð fyrir að eftirspurn eftir bifreiðum haldi áfram að aukast lítillega árið 2022. Sölumagn bifreiða er um það bil 27 milljónir eininga, sem er aukning af 3 prósentum -5 prósentum-á ári, og munurinn á lágmarki fyrir og há allt árið verður áfram .
Lin Huaibin, head of IHSMarkit's light vehicle sales forecast in my country, believes that the development of new energy vehicles in China has ushered in a turning point for fuel vehicles. Considering the comprehensive cost, the current electric vehicle has reached a level that is basically the same as that of the fuel vehicle, and the cost performance advantage of the electric vehicle has been very obvious. It should be seen that while the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the market penetration rate of autonomous driving is also rapidly increasing. If chips can be supplied stably, my country's new energy vehicle market share will account for 17 percent -18 percent in 2022.
Mei Songlin, vice president of strategic operations of WM Motor Group, believes that the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle market has increased significantly, and the electric vehicle market is close to an inflection point of 16 percent . After crossing this inflection point, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an outbreak period, and electric vehicles must attack the mid-end market of traditional fuel vehicles, that is, the A-class vehicle market.
Í þessu sambandi telur Bai Ling, iðnaðarrannsóknarsérfræðingur frá vöruskipulagsdeild Chongqing Changan, einnig að árið 2022 muni nýja orkubílamarkaðurinn smám saman breytast úr útigrill í snældaform. Hlutfallið mun hækka smám saman.
